Posted by Ochre Powder: Increase Marking Passrate

Agryo [12k+ 3xRos,
FROZEN] (#84746)


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Posted on
2018-12-17 12:12:38
Hullo everyone! I'm here with an idea that will hopefully tip the odds in our favor for marking-based breeding projects: an item that doubles the chances of a marking passing when applied to a normal lion.

Now, before anyone gets up in arms about this ruining the market (a very valid concern, given the market is shaky at best!), please read on! Due to how I hope the item will interact with marking pass rates (linked at the bottom of this post), I honestly don't think this item would cause any harm to markets. If it remains concerning, I've got a few ways to possibly limit this item's use in mind too!

The main purpose of this marking would be to boost the chance of a parent's non-Rosette marking from passing; markings not usually worth a Gnawrock, but ones you'd love to see on your heir, mutie cubs, or just to see spread. It would be too costly to reasonably use on every litter, but cheap enough that even new-ish players who win a Raffle lioness could have better chances of helping her markings spread.

How it would work
This item (Ochre Powder? Ochre Dust? Ochre Smear? IDK) would double the pass rate of one marking on one of the parent lions. Only works for one breeding, bla bla bla, standard breeding item stuff.

I know jack all about how the marking coding works, other than what Staff has confirmed, but I would expect this item to not harm the other parent's pass rate. These ideas shared are all done so without any coding in mind, so if implemented it might be done differently. This is just what I feel would be an ideal, balanced scenario, still allowing for RNG (thus keeping Ochre Gnawrocks relevant) but tipping the odds in your favor a bit.

Let's say you have a lioness with Steele Margay in slot 10; the stud has anything but that in slot 10:
  • Usually, Steele Margay would pass 25% of the time, the stud's mark would pass 25% of the time, and 50% of the time there would be nothing in that slot.
  • If the Ochre Powder is used, Steele Margay would pass 50% of the time, the stud's mark 25% of the time, and the slot would be empty 25% of the time.

Let's say both parents have Steele Margay in slot 10:
  • Usually, it would pass 75% of the time, with the slot remaining empty 25% of the time.
  • Doubling 75% gets us well over 100%, so I figure the marking will simply pass to all cubs instead of breaking RNG.

And what if the other lion has nothing in that slot?
  • In cases where one slot is empty and the other has a marking, the mark passes 50% of the time and the slot remains empty 50% of the time.
  • 50% doubled makes for a nice 100%, so the marking would appear on all cubs. Now, this and the above option might feel VERY OP, and I don't blame the thought! Hence, the suggestion has been edited so only one can be used per parent, to avoid king-clones. This is supposed to help you make a brand-new king, not throw a 0-mark NCL at an existing king to clone.

What about Rosettes?
  • Here's where I get cheeky: in most circumstances, Rosettes seem to pass around ~0.5-1% of the time if the slot is occupied in the other parent, or ~1-2% if that slot is not occupied.
  • If this item is used, it would double that percentage. A percentage so small that it likely wouldn't make a noticeable difference; this item would be wasted on Rosettes! So Rosette breeders, such as myself to an extent, would still need Gnawrocks to get those valuable marks to pass.

What about hybrids?
  • This is my only real concern with this item: hybrids pass their respective marking (Tigons for Mottled Stripes, Leopons for Mottled Rosette) far more often. I don't have the data on it yet, but they seem to treat it like a normal marking. See the above stats? Replace that with a Mottled mark and you can see where this is going.
  • However, I don't think doubling whatever that percentage is would be too harmful; last I checked, Mottled Rosettes were going for around 1-2GB, and Mottled Stripes for 6-ish GB. I don't think it would cause too much damage to the market, but if it seems unreasonable I'm sure hybrid marks could be excluded from this item's list (much like how they can't be RMA'd)
Extra concern: the value of multi-mark lions
  • Just putting this here in case, but I doubt this will be too much of a problem. When I refer to 'multi-marks', I mean stuff like lions with all four Celestial marks, all nine Vits/all eight Felines of a color, stuff like that. However, if limited to one Ochre Powder per lion, even with a Gnawrock used on each in addition, you can only, at best, guarantee four markings, with monumental costs given the involvement of Gnaws. Might be cheaper to breed that quad Celestial yourself!


Acquiring It
So, snazzy item; how do we get our hands on it?

  • Given it's not that OP, and should be decently accessible given it's still fairly reliant on RNG, my first suggestion would be that it's an Oasis item. Either 1 or 2GB, so roughly as valuable as Pennyroyal (increases odds of Primals variants)/CRB (increases mutie chance at the cost of a miscarriage) or an Zebra Heart(force your lioness into heat)/IBF(instant birth a litter), all of which are already items used for a special breeding here and there (or a mass CRB). It would be hard to abuse on a large pride (and what would you really gain by having more of a non-Rosette mark born, unless you get lucky and a nice base/etc passes too?) but could reasonably be done if your breeding project demanded it.
  • Second idea is similar; get it from Monkey Business. It would fit right in alongside Opal Saltlick (guarantees that eyes pass) and Rock Salt (guarantees that skin passes). Though it could match the former at 500SB, I think that might be a bit cheap; maybe 1000SB, like Safou Fruit, or 750SB like the Random Eye Changer?
  • Third, and least liked, would be literally anything else. Given this week's News post, it could be a Murex Shell craftable, or a cheap Event/Monkey Teeth purchase, but I feel like this would make it harder to obtain when the entire point is 'even newer players can tip the odds a little more in their favor'. If it's implemented in such a way that the item feels too good, though, this could be a reasonable way to limit it's availability. (If so, I feel it should be treated like Medlar Fruit in the Manticore Shop, so users could stock up and the price hopefully wouldn't get too high later in the year)


Limitations
If the above seems OP for whatever reason, especially if implemented as an Oasis/Monkey Business item, that's perfectly fine and understandable! Here are some possible limitations that could keep this in check. I personally think that the doubling is reasonable, especially for a 1-2GB item, but I like having options available. ;D

  • Cannot use more than 1 per lion; I figure this one will be implemented by default Most breeding items to date can only have one used on the lion at a time (can't use two Gnawrocks on one lion, for instance); if this was the exception, I feel the price would skyrocket and it would, at best, ensure a 75% pass rate, not 100%, if you could use multiple on one lion. I'm banking on it being one per lion like everything else, though!
  • Make it not work on hybrid marks (or hybrids in general). This would be the easiest way to avoid that above situation I'm a little unsure of, concerning hybrid mark pass rates. Given the current value of hybrid marks, I don't think there would be too much incentive to abuse this, though it might reduce the [rare] use of Gnaws on such litters. If it's just applied to hybrids in general as a type of lion, then I'd see people applying the item to the stud's rare marks anyways, so?
  • Make it share an 'item use' slot with Ochre Gnawrocks (or Crunchy Worms?). I honestly don't like this one at all, but it could be reasonable; something similar is already implemented with Lion Meat/Lion Scrot/GMOs sharing an item use slot. Could be very irritating if the above 'only one per lion' is applied and you can't try to Gnaw a second mark/Crunchy Worm to hopefully get that 25% chance clone, but if you can Ochre Powder multiple marks on a lion, I feel forbidding Ochre Gnawrocks from being used at the same time on the same lion is perfectly reasonable.

(I mean, you could make it activate only X% of the time, but. That feels stupid, a percentage for a percentage boost, so it could activate and you'd still be left with the mark not passing. Please don't do this if implemented, please, I beg of you.)

Alternatively...

  • If the above doubling feels too good to be true, the item could stack on a 25% boost to a non-Rosette/Hybrid marking's pass rate. So Scenario 1 still ends in 50% Steele Margay, Scenario 2 with 100% Steele Margay, and Scenario 3 with 75%. Only thing is, IDK how the coding would work to exclude all Rosettes and Hybrid marks from the dropdown, or to make the item give an error message when used on one. This version may be a bit more balanced, and if this one was implemented, I could definitely see multiple being permitted on a given lion. Though studs would need to be careful about breeding to daughters/near-clones, but those worried about clones already do, so!


And that's that! Any concerns, feedback, criticism? Please comment below! I'd love to see this concept or a similar one implemented, so I'd love to hear of ways this idea could be improved upon and ironed out!

Proof of pass rate %s

  • If two parents have different markings in the same slot, it looks like there's a roughly 25% chance for each parent's marking to pass and a 50% chance of the slot being empty. (Proof)
  • If two parents have the same marking in the same slot, Staff has confirmed there is a 75% chance of the marking passing and a 25% chance of the slot being empty. (Proof)
  • As of my current testing, Rosettes pass somewhere around 1-2% of the time if the other parent has a free slot there. (Proof, click the big data thing and the 'short form results' tab)
  • I do not have data for how a hybrid parent influences the pass rate of Mott Stripes/Rosette, so if anyone can contribute please do so! That's really the only thing I'm iffy about, but I covered why I don't think it'd be a big problem.



This suggestion has 87 supports and 1 NO support.



Edited on 22/08/19 @ 17:16:44 by Agryo [Main] (#70050)

~🌸LylacBeetle🌸
~ (#7444)

Heavenly
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Posted on
2018-12-17 12:14:43
YES PLEASE <3


fluff (#145767)

Devastator
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Posted on
2018-12-17 16:40:05
yes yes yes *smashes support button*


Vitani [Glacial
Ferus] (#57775)

Dreamboat of Ladies
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Posted on
2019-01-18 10:11:38
I love how thorough this is. Supported!


Agryo [Project] (#70050)


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Posted on
2019-08-07 07:27:34
Hmmmm, gonna tweak this later today because I had a thought:

If one lion has a mark and the other has the slot empty, the marking passes 50% of the time. Doubling that would give you 100% pass rate for a non-Rosette mark. Thus, breeding an an NCL with 0 marks to a 10-mark king, ypu could spam Ochre Powders to clone him, yikes!

Given this, I'd suggest limiting it to one per lion. Sucks, but don't wanna have an easy king cloning exploit.

I still hope for the item to be an acessible way to boost the odds in your important breedings, without completely removing RNG from the equation.




the serval spots
💛🌼 (#98320)

Holy
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Posted on
2019-08-22 17:04:23
Welldone, concise, and a gift of an item!

Double support. Please let me have this so my Cream Rims can behave for once.